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About Hermiston herald. (Hermiston, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Nov. 27, 2019)
NEWS WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2019 HERMISTONHERALD.COM • A11 Oregon economy remains strong heading into holiday season gon has fared well, accord- ing to Tapogna, but prices for certain imported prod- ucts continue to rise and put the burden on consumers. “Oregon is sort of in the middle of the pack of all states. We’re not as adversely affected as some of the state’s in the mid- dle of the country by the export aspect of trying to sell things into China, but on the other side, in terms of tariffs for things coming into the country, it’s putting upward pressure on prices,” Tapogna said. By JAKE THOMAS, SAPHARA HARRELL AND SAM STITES OREGON CAPITAL BUREAU SALEM — It’s a good time to be a holiday shopper in Oregon. Despite fears of a reces- sion earlier this year, Ore- gon’s economy remains stronger than much of the country. Unlike a decade ago, when the economy was reeling from a recession, Oregonians have jobs and money. That puts them in a better position to be gener- ous this holiday season. Hovering at 4%, the state’s unemployment rate is at historic lows. Oregon had the second fastest growing median income in 2018. At 13%, Oregon’s poverty rate is below the national rate and the lowest since 2000. “We’re in unprecedented times right now,” said John Topagna, president and economist at Portland-based consulting fi rm ECONor- thwest. “We’re in the 11th year of an economic expan- sion, and no other Ameri- cans have ever lived through that.” While Oregon’s eco- nomic indicators are strong going into the busiest shop- ping season of the year, there are signs that trouble some economists. There have also been some blips in the oth- erwise strong economy that resulted in job losses. Still, local shoppers, retailers and bankers remain optimistic going into the holidays. Umpqua Bank, a regional bank with branches across Oregon, reports strong con- sumer confi dence. Annette Campista, a senior vice president at the bank and regional director of busi- ness banking, said she’s seen an increase in business loan applications, an indica- tor of economic health. Campista said the bank has seen an uptick in con- sumers saving. She said many customers have lev- eraged low interest rates to refi nance their homes and consolidate debt. Jeff Bailey, the presi- dent and CEO of the Hep- pner-based Bank of Eastern Oregon, similarly reported increases in deposits, “steady to better” activity on loans and overall faith in the economy despite the threat trade wars pose to the region’s agriculture. “From a national per- spective, consumer spend- ing is still very strong,” said Bailey. “In small towns in rural Eastern Oregon, it’s pretty much the same.” He said he expects a good year for merchants. “All in all, consumers are fairly optimistic,” said Bailey. “They’re feeling good about their own fi nan- cial situation.” Pat O’Connor, regional economist at the state Employment Department, said that while Oregon BTW Continued from Page A1 Macklemore and producer Ryan Lewis teamed up on the single “Thrift Shop” which reached No. 1 on the U.S. Billboard Hot 100 in 2013. The duo’s second sin- gle “Can’t Hold Us” also hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart, making Macklemore and Lewis the fi rst duo in the chart’s history to have their fi rst two singles both reach HOLIDAY SALES ers are presuming too much about the future economy and using credit terms that outlive their cars. These are signs that a recession could be on the horizon, he said. “Don’t borrow a lot of money and cut back (on spending),” Whelan said. “That’s what I would tell consumers and business owners right now.” According to Lance Rudge, Portland mar- ket leader for U.S. Bank, Americans will be wary of how political shakeups at the state and national level in 2020 might affect both their businesses and their pocketbooks. “The economy and job market are strong, but we are seeing that small busi- nesses are hesitant to take on more debt with the con- sequences from 2008 still in mind,” Rudge said. For now, Rudge said, “We expect a good holiday shopping season.” Private economists don’t paint quite as rosy a pic- ture as the state’s analysts. Both Tapogna and fellow ECONorthwest economist Bob Whelan warn there are a few signals that the U.S. is headed for a recession. They’re warning consum- ers and business owners alike to tread lightly. “Retail sales are surpris- ingly weak. To me it looks like the economy is running out of gas,” Whelan said. “If I were a retailer, hote- lier, restaurateur; I’d be cautious.” When assessing the economy’s strength, Whelan looks at indicators including consumer spend- ing, debt, manufacturing and agricultural produc- tion, population growth, employment and housing development. He believes consumer spending is par- ticularly illustrative of the economic health because it accounts for about two- thirds of the economy, the other third being made up of mostly government spending. According to Whelan, reports from national retail- ers provide some insight into how Oregon retailers might be faring and what they can expect in the com- ing months. Kohl’s is one company that provides a good snap- shot of how much average consumers are spending at a point in time, Whelan said, because the retailer serves a decidedly mid- dle-class demographic. Kohl’s could serve as a red fl ag for Oregon’s retail- ers. Two weeks ago, the stock fell nearly 25 per- cent in one day after report- ing poor performance in the third quarter and project- ing a bad outlook for the holidays. Whelan also warned that consumer spending has relied on credit, partic- ularly in the mortgage and auto industries. Defaults on car loans are at a 20-year high, meaning that consum- The Trump adminis- tration’s trade wars pose a particular threat to Ore- gon, which relies heavily on exports. The state’s eco- nomic forecast identifi ed slower growth in construc- tion, hospitality, business services and durable goods. It also found that employ- ers are posting fewer help wanted ads and that busi- ness investment is down. Whelan and Tapogna indicate tariffs have actu- ally hurt Oregon worse than what’s previously been reported, particularly in the areas of manufacturing and agriculture. Overall, manufactur- ing employment in Oregon is declining, and increased taxes on products like hazel- nuts, timber and micropro- cessors have caused head- aches for farmers, loggers and tech giants alike. Out- side of those industries Ore- Oregon business owners, however, are feeling confi - dent in the state’s economy heading into the holidays and the sales season ahead. “I’m anticipating it will be exceptional,” said Bob Neher, owner of Clay in Motion, a pottery shop in Milton-Freewater. “Every- one is upbeat.” Randy Smith, co-owner of Smitty’s Ace Hardware and Smitty’s Outpost in Hermiston, said he mostly sells things people need more than want, a protection that insulates his business from seeing as many highs and lows as other retailers. Smith is expecting a strong holiday shopping season, but he said that cir- cumstances feel different for retailers now than it did three to fi ve years ago. He said that Black Friday deals now span a month. “Truthfully they kind of ruined Black Friday,” he said. “It’s not a huge peak. You don’t have the same excitement.” Mark Bigej, owner of Al’s Garden and Home in Wilsonville, confi rmed Smith’s sentiment. He’s noticed that consumers are ready to shop for the holi- days sooner and sooner each year rather than waiting for Thanksgiving weekend. “We’re a little bit anxious about the fact that Thanks- giving is a week later and there’s a compressed shop- ping time between Thanks- giving and Christmas,” Bigej said. “That’s worri- some when we lose a solid week. Right now, consumers seem to be ready for Christ- mas and are shopping early. We’re seeing more con- sumer spending this year than last year, and we’re hoping that continues.” Going into the holidays, local retailers face chal- lenges from online retail giants like Amazon, as well as what could be a particu- larly snowy winter for the state. Retailers seem con- fi dent that local consum- ers will continue to spend if they cater to their needs and inclement weather doesn’t ruin shopping days. In Baker City, Betty’s Books receives freight three times a week to try to rival the convenience many seek by online shopping and con- No. 1. The pair won four Grammy Awards at the 2014 ceremony, including best new artist, best rap album, best rap song and best rap performance. Tickets will go on sale in early February following the release of the festival’s full artist lineup. • • • Hermiston’s 46th annual Farm Fair is scheduled for Dec. 4-6. The event will feature three days packed with ven- dors, food samples and pre- sentations in English and Spanish on topics ranging from hemp to bees. Wednes- day and Thursday will be held at the Eastern Ore- gon Trade and Event Cen- ter and Friday will be at the Hermiston Agricultural Research and Extension Center. Most sessions are free, but there is a $20 fee for CORE classes, which peo- ple can register for at www. hermistonchamber.com. Look for the full sched- ule, biographies of the mod- erators and more information in the Farm Fair special sec- tion of next week’s Hermis- ton Herald. • • • Members of the Colum- bia River Heat recently stepped up to the plate to help at the Hermiston Warming Station. Adelaide Zum- walt said the group of soft- ball players hit a home run in providing a valuable com- munity service by cleaning the facility in advance of it opening. The Hermiston Warming Station is at 1075 S. High- way 395. For information about making donations or ways to help, call 541-289- 2150 or search Facebook. • • • The Hermiston Herald offi ces will close at noon on Wednesday of this week and all day on Thursday so that our offi ce staff can celebrate Thanksgiving. The offi ce will resume its normal hours on Friday. • • • The Harkenrider Senior Staff photo by Ben Lonergan Customers check out at Smitty’s Ace Hardware in Hermiston on Tuesday evening, the hardware store expects to see a similar number of customers during the holiday shopping season as last year. tends to have a tougher time during recessions, its econ- omy tends to outpace the rest of the country during expansions. But he said that the high growth that Oregon and the rest of the country have experienced in recent years is starting to slow. Earlier this year, the economy showed signs it was teetering on a reces- sion. While fears of a reces- sion didn’t materialize, the economy is still show- ing signs of slowing. Busi- nesses are investing less, and hiring has slowed. “Growth has slowed in 2019 and downside risks remain elevated,” wrote Josh Lehner, an economist with the Oregon Offi ce of Economic Analysis, in a summary of the state’s most recent economic forecast. “However, a recession is not yet seen in the data.” O’Connor said that business investment is down, possibly because of decreased demand or uneas- iness over the trade wars. The slowdown isn’t surpris- ing, he said. He attributed the tight labor market to employers running out of people to hire. “I think that’s the big- gest change over the past years,” said O’Connor. “But if you have to have some slow growth, it’s good to have it at record low unemployment.” He said that the econ- omy has been propped up by consumers with more money to spend. Earlier this month, economic research fi rm Moody’s Analytics noted that “the consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse.” RUNNING OUT OF GAS MEDICAL DIRECTORY To advertise in the Medical Directory, please call: Jeanne at 541-564-4531 or Audra at 541-564-4538 RISING PRICES Activity Center will not be holding meals on Thursday or Friday due to the Thanks- giving holiday. Monday’s menu is tur- key sandwich, pasta salad and dessert. Tuesday is meat loaf, veggies, Jell-O salad and dessert. Next Wednes- day is chicken Alfredo, salad, fruit and cookies. — You can submit items for our weekly By The Way column by emailing your tips to editor@hermiston- herald.com. HERMISTON FAMILY MEDICINE & URGENT CARE Sports & Dot Physicals • Minor Injuries • Family Care • Minor Surgeries We accept Medicare & some Advantage Medicare plans NO APPOINTMENT NECESSARY HOURS: Mon.-Sat. 7:30am-7:00pm 541-567-1137 236 E. Newport, Hermiston (across from U.S. Bank) LET US BE THE ONE THAT HELPS! Call Today! • Adult, Child and Family Therapy • Psychiatric Evaluation and Treatment • Mental Health and Crisis Services • Confidential and Professional Care LIFEWAYS PENDLETON Crisis Phone: LIFEWAYS HERMISTON 541-289-5433 331 SE 2nd St., 595 NW 11th St., 866-343-4473 Pendleton, OR 97801 Hermiston, OR 97838 Office: 541-276-6207 WWW . LIFEWAYS . ORG Office: 541-567-2536 tinues to have shoppers year-round. “We have one day (ship- ping) sometimes,” said Car- olyn Kulog, owner of Bet- ty’s Books, which has been open 40 years. In La Grande, Blue Mountain Outfi tters owner Jim Whitbeck has shifted marketing away from tour- ism to a larger focus on the local scene at his outdoor equipment store. Whitbeck said people are surprised a business like his, which sells medium- to high-end out- door products, can compete with retail giants. “The one thing I have to say is I never knew a world without Amazon,” Whitbeck said. Marie LeRud, owner of Lake Oswego’s Lucky Me Boutique, has turned to cre- ativity to bring more cus- tomers into her brick-and- mortar store in the age of online shopping. She offers free gift wrapping during the holiday season, something that sets her apart in the minds of customers decid- ing where to buy. “I’m a big-themed kind of person. You don’t get that online. You have to be cre- ative in the way of getting your customers wanting to come into the store,” LeRud said. Some business owners aren’t looking to the econ- omy as a barometer for sales, they’re looking to the skies as forecasts predict snowy weather for the state. The confi dence in Oregon’s economy seems to diminish at the prospect of snow. Jared Mees, co-owner of indie record label Ten- der Loving Empire, said the unique niche of his business means it doesn’t have to compete with online retail- ers. The label operates a handful of stores in the Port- land area offering records, apparel, housewares and other unique items. Although Mees doesn’t worry about losing sales to the internet, he’s been anx- iously tracking weather forecasts that predict at least one or two snowstorms during the next couple of weeks. For Tender Loving Empire, inclement weather can turn a $5,000 day for sales into one with just $300 or $500 in the register at closing time. “If there’s a ‘snowpoc- alypse,’ it can deter (shop- pers), and you don’t get those days back. It’s like every retailer … this is your time to profi t. Once Dec. 24 hits, it’s over,” Mees said. Contributors to this report: Joseph Galli- van, Portland Tribune; Jade McDowell, East Ore- gonian; Phil Wright, La Grande Observer; Jayson Jacoby, Baker City Herald; Stephanie Basalyga, Busi- ness Tribune; Clara How- ell, Lake Oswego Review; Corey Buchanan, Wilson- ville Spokesman. 1060 W. Elm, Suite #115, Hermiston, OR (across from Good Shepherd Medical Center) www.apd4kidz.com Office Hours: Mon-Fri 8am-4pm GENERAL FAMILY DENTISTRY • CROWNS • BRIDGES • DENTURES VENEERS DENTAL IMPLANT RESTORATION Ryan M. Wieseler, D.D.S, PC www.desertdentalsmiles.com 541.567.8161 • 995 Orchard Avenue • Hermiston Eye Health & Vision Care Robert D. Rolen , O.D., LLC Optometric Physician 115 W. Hermiston Ave. Suite 130 541-567-1837